One little examined aspect of a Shia Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons (notwithstanding its protestations to the contrary) is how it is at least partly motivated by its nuclear armed, predominantly Sunni neighbor to the east, Pakistan.
It is unclear to what extent the two have cooperated on nuclear matters in the past. There have been some hints of elements in the Pakistan establishment helping Iran in its nuclear quest, particularly its nuclear scientists led by Abdul Qadeer Khan. However, as has been its wont in other strategic matters, Pakistan has hedged its nuclear bets between the United States on the one hand and Iran on the other.
Although I have no official comment or insider knowledge to make this assertion, it seems logical that Iran, being the most consequential Shiite nation, would consider it necessary to give its war machine a nuclear edge. Working behind that consideration ought to be the awareness that in the end Pakistan would feel a greater pull towards a staunchly Sunni Saudi Arabia than Iran. Tehran ought to be mindful of that religio-cultural affinity.
That said I doubt whether either Iran or Pakistan can afford to fully cast themselves on the two sides of the Sunni-Shia divide because both often feel isolated and may find it strategically wise to keep the option of cooperation open. That the two share a 566 mile (about 915 kilometers) border, which from Pakistan’s standpoint is particularly crucial populated as it is by the Balochi nationalists, is certainly a significant factor here.
Given the entire region’s millennial historic links, it is hard to imagine any one member of that area decisively cutting ties with the rest. By its very nature the region demands that the nation-states there make constant adjustments. At the same time though regional domination is a natural instinct, both for Pakistan with the world’s largest Sunni population and Iran with the largest Shia population.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was recently in Pakistan to meet the latter’s President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousuf Reza Gilani as well as Afghan President Hamid Karzai.They did discuss cooperation possibilities between their three countries, something the US must have noted considering its plan to draw down its military involvement in Afghanistan. Incidentally, Zardari is Shia, not that it has a direct bearing on his political or strategic conduct but somewhere along the line it may inform it.
On a side note, I am sure Pakistan has been tracking a recent upswing in trade ties between Iran and Pakistan, particularly in the context of New Delhi’s oil imports and its decision to pay for a substantial part of it (40%) in the rupees to get around tightening international sanctions against Tehran. No one should be surprised if the Pakistani establishment was not particularly happy about this development. But the Pakistanis would do well to remember that economic compulsions will always trump everything else. At this stage, Iran desperately needs to keep its trade alive, even if it means accepting the rupee and some measure of barter.
