It is the job of the academic community to raise possibilities of the worst case scenarios in any given situation and then analyze what the consequences of letting them happen would be for the world. When it comes to Afghanistan/Pakistan region or Af-Pak as it has come to be known as, almost any scenario is one of the worst case scenarios these days.
The one that I find particularly striking comes from Harold A. Gould, Visiting Scholar in the Center for South Asian Studies, University of Virginia.
It is striking not just because it is clinically detached but strategically indifferent. Gould’s argument seems to be that when something is inevitable, it is best to let it play out. It reminds me of the often brutal situational logic that attends many conflicts in the Mahabharat.
His comments come in the context of rising fears over the very real possibility of Pakistan’s political disintegration. If what Gould is advocating turns out to be the case, then the Af-Pak theater can expect nothing short of a holocaust, which is indeed what he says the stakeholders should let happen if that’s what it will take.
Writing for the IANS today, Gould says this:
“Islamic fanaticism, conjoined with military authoritarianism, has ripped Pakistan to shreds and soon will provoke its political disintegration. What alternative is left for US, NATO and Indian strategic policy in the face of a Pakistani political meltdown?
In my opinion, the best option is what I would call strategic consolidation. That is, India, the US and its allies, must "step aside", let the holocaust happen, and try to contain in every way possible its spread beyond Pakistan's borders and the Pashtun region now dominated by the Taliban.
As the dimensions and ramifications of the "implosion" become apparent, the US, NATO and India can deploy their military and diplomatic resources in whatever manner they deem necessary and possible to contain, ameliorate and mediate the undoubtedly pervasive violence that will ensue and must run its course.”
Gould also quotes what Robert D. Blackwill, a former US Ambassador to India, argues.
“With regard to Afghan policy in the face of a Pakistani political meltdown, and an inevitable consequent upsurgence of Taliban militancy in the Pashtun region, former US ambassador to India (2001-3) Robert D. Blackwill has offered a highly imaginative interim solution.
The US, he says, should for the time being consolidate its forces and resources in the non-Pashtun portions of the country where Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazarras predominate and originally formed the core of the Northern Alliance which in concert with the US after 9/11 defeated the Taliban.
His observations concerning the interim realignment of forces in Afghanistan in the face of the worst-case scenario are highly pertinent.
"Washington should accept," he declares, "that the Taliban will inevitably control most of the Pashtun south and east and that the price of forestalling that outcome is far too high for the United States to continue paying."
Even prior to the impending collapse of Pakistan, or indeed if in the end it avoids this terminal fate, Blackwill rightly concludes that "the emergence of a clear division in Pakistan might provide just the sort of shock the Pakistani military apparently needs in order to appreciate the dangers of the game it has been playing for decades."
In short, there are no happy endings here. If you are an Afghani or a Pakistani, you are being told to accept the hand you have dealt yourselves and accept its outcome. I am not sure if any political figure, in this case President Barack Obama or even Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, can willfully accept what increasingly seems like a fait accompli to some.
So far I think it would be a mistake to believe that one catastrophic dénouement of the kind being advocated here will happen and settle the bloody ferment. I see an open-ended and unresolved drama being played out for the time being.