The cover of Time magazine from April, 1959
In the interest of clarity the obvious has to be stated. The Dalai Lama has been in India for nearly 60 years. His entire rise as a global leader of conscience and consequence has been out of and because of India. When he first came into exile on March 31, 1959 as he crossed from Tibet and reached Tezpur in the Indian state of Assam on April 18, he was 23. He will be 83 on July 6 this year.
It is unquestionable that Tenzin Gyatso’s widespread global impact as the 14th Dalai Lama has been almost entirely because of the freedom that he has enjoyed in India. He has repeatedly acknowledged it.
None of these facts is a secret that China is only just discovering or India has hidden until now. Given all that it seems rather silly that as the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan community-in-exile celebrate from today the 60th year with a series of year-long “Thank you India” events New Delhi should feel defensive and pretend to distance itself from the goings-on. Even in this era of frenzied “breaking news”, it is no breaking news that the Dalai Lama completes 60 years on Indian soil.
I have been reading about and watching with some amusement the contortions New Delhi is going through to not appear to join the celebrations. The Indian Express broke the story about India’s Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale sending a classified note to the country’s top bureaucrat, Cabinet Secretary P.K. Sinha asking “senior leaders” and ‘government functionaries” to stay away from participation in the celebrations. The classified note had the effect of the Central Tibetan Administration having to cancel a major event in the country’s capital and shift it to Dharamshala, near where McLeod Ganj in Himachal Pradesh where the Dalai Lama has lived all these decades.
That celebrations were kicked off today with a somewhat surprising presence of junior Minister for Culture and Environment Mahesh Sharma along with his Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) ideologue Ram Madhav.
The celebrations did lose some of its profile after the issue of the classified note but in terms of changing any minds in Beijing about the Dalai Lama or Tibet they are unlikely to move any needles. For all practical purposes, the underlying tensions between China and India over a complex set of issues will remain as they are irrespective of whether New Delhi officially distances itself from the celebrations or not. The idea that a gesture by the Indian government in not appearing to be joining the celebrations would make any material difference is laughable.
India’s eyes are set on the upcoming summit between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in June. The long festering border disputes between the two Asian giants, apart from trade and other issues, are expected to figure in the summit. I seriously doubt whether officially eschewing the celebrations would earn Modi any significant bargaining strength during the summit. That is a sideshow that India should not have bent over backwards to avoid.
When the two leaders meet, they would be in political positions that couldn’t be more dissimilar. Xi is triumphant from his recent historic consolidation of power, including ensuring that he remains the undisputed leader of China as long as he wants by eliminating a term limit on the presidency. Modi on the other hand appears to have lost much of his shine because of the mounting domestic problems over failed lofty promises as he prepares for the 2019 general elections. Unlike Xi, Modi has to face an increasingly disenchanted electorate and could suffer significant political diminishment if not an outright defeat. Xi has to have factored in that political calculation as he receives Modi. Of course, the BJP leadership is absolutely confident of winning the 2019 elections.
History, both ancient and relatively contemporary, never seems to leave the discourse in that part of the world and in fact continues to shape it as evident in the Tibetan celebrations. More than 94,000 Tibetan refugees out of a total of over 128,000 live in India. The rest are spread across the world. If they have any significance at all it is embodied in the person of the Dalai Lama who remains revered in Tibet despite a severe Chinese policy against glorifying him.