Mayank Chhaya Daily

People and weather not welcome

The phalanx of national flag receives inspection in a parade of the celebrations for the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, on Chang'an Street in central Beijing, capital of China, Oct. 1, 2009. (Xinhua/Yang Lei) (I have reproduced the exact caption and photo credit as it appears on english.china.com)

Two things struck me about the 60^th anniversary celebrations of the founding of the People's Republic of China on Thursday. One was that Beijing modified weather to ensure that the day for the spectacular military/cultural parade was picture perfect and the other was that it asked the residents of the capital to stay indoors and watch the celebrations on their television. When it comes to sheer gumption you have to hand it to China.

It seems those in charge of weather, or at any rate weather predictions, were told in no uncertain terms to make sure that distractions such as rains or fog did not come in the way of China's ruling elite exulting on this special day. Cui Lianqing, an air force meteorologist, was quoted by Global Times newspaper as saying, "It is the first time in Chinese history that artificial weather modification on such a large scale has been attempted." Eighteen planes stood by to deliver payloads of dry ice, salt and silver iodide in case clouds began building up. Some 48 specialized vehicles were at hand to shoot bursts of air to push any fog that might have built up early morning. Beijing wanted the world to see the colored streams left in their wake by 150 fighter jets deployed in a stunning fly-past.

The Guardian reported that that other than the 30,000 special invitees the rest of the people in the Beijing were asked not to show up at the venue for the two-mile parade. They were told to watch it from home. The basic message was weather and people not welcome or, at the very least, only weather and people screened by the government were welcome.

If the Olympics opening ceremony and the 60^th anniversary celebrations have proved anything, it is that no one can quite put up a spectacle as well as China.

Beijing V. Reykjavik

What happens when the Dalai Lama goes to Iceland? Apparently China recalls its ambassador in protest. Tibetsun.com, quoting an Icelandic news site mbl.is, reports that Chinese Ambassador Zhang Keyuan in Reykjavik has been recalled because the country was hosting the Dalai Lama.

I take note of this if only to underscore my frequent point about how China remains so actively engaged in throwing obstacles in the Dalai Lama’s path in any and all parts of the world at any and all times. Their near obsessive commitment to opposing the Dalai Lama would be amusing did it not involve a serious issue affecting millions of people for more than 50 years.

If Beijing spends even half the time in involving itself in a constructive dialogue with the Dalai Lama as it spends on virulently opposing him, we will move towards a solution to this tragic conflict. To think someone in China’s Foreign Ministry has the time, energy, enthusiasm and conviction to want to tick off Reykjavik (a sort of name that gets asked at the Spelling Bees) is remarkable. 

China is always watching

An Arunachali woman in a traditional attire (www.india.gov.in)

China is nothing if not relentless. You have to admire Beijing’s obsession to challenge and block anything and everything it considers against its own interests anywhere in the world. India has known this for a long time but it has just been given a refresher course on how anal China can get.

Manish Chand of the IANS has a story about how China is blocking a $ 2.9 billion development loan for India at the Asian Development Bank (ADB) because it contains $60 million for a development project in Arunachal Pradesh, the northeast Indian state Beijing claims as its own.

Beijing has been known to express its displeasure at any economically consequential or politically symbolic move that New Delhi makes in this state. Arunachal is India’s easternmost state measuring 32,333 square miles and bordering among others the China-controlled Tibet to its north. China claims part of Arunachal Pradesh as South Tibet, a claim India has steadfastly rejected.

China is a country that does not let go of anything. It has a long institutional and cultural memory that can manifest any time. It also believes in keeping alive forever the option of geographical expansion or extending its influence. It is able to do so at several levels simultaneously. For instance, last month barely days after China’s Prime Minister Wen Jiabao practically questioned the creditworthiness of the United States a senior official lit another more potent fuse. The country’s central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan has said in an essay that the world needs to create a new currency to replace the dollar as the world’s standard.

I cite this as an example of how assiduous China is and at so many levels to ensure that its presence and influence is felt all the time. Beijing knows that the world in economic ferment is a happy hunting ground for a country which has the world's sixth largest wealth fund of $200 billion and $2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves. India specifically and the world generally should be prepared to be needled by China at every step of the way.

The dollar won't do

People's Bank of China governor Zhou Xiaochuan

Barely days after China’s Prime Minister Wen Jiabao practically questioned the creditworthiness of the United States, a senior official has lit another more potent fuse. The country’s central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan has said in an essay that the world needs to create a new currency to replace the dollar as the world’s standard.

Unlike the United States, Asian powers such as China and Russia plot their moves like the game of chess. China knows that the dollar cannot be replaced in the short term but Beijing does not play for the short term. China’s philosophy is more institutional rather than individual. One never hears about the Chinese discussing the legacy of a particular government like people do in America. Since there is only one political party the question of legacy invariably centers on the country as a whole rather than a political party.

It is from this standpoint that one needs to view Zhou’s proposal. China’s is genuinely worried about having tied up its investments so heavily on the U.S. treasury bonds. It more than likely views the enormously large spending plans by the Obama administration as profligacy which could come to harm China’s own future. The idea for a global currency not specific to a country stems out of these worries.

Equally, the suggestion is also motivated by a wish to significantly reduce the U.S. domination over the global financial system. In the short term China cannot afford to attack the dollar given its own disproportionate dependence on the currency. But in the long run it sees itself as one of the two principle arbiters of the world along with the U.S., if not the sole arbiter at some point in the not too distant a future.

“The outbreak of the current crisis and its spillover in the world have confronted us with a long-existing but still unanswered question,i.e., what kind of international reserve currency do we need to secure global financial stability and facilitate world economic growth, which was one of the purposes for establishing the IMF? There were various institutional arrangements in an attempt to find a solution, including the Silver Standard, the Gold Standard, the Gold Exchange Standard and the Bretton Woods system. The above question, however, as the ongoing financial crisis demonstrates, is far from being solved, and has become even more severe due to the inherent weaknesses of the current international monetary system,” Zhou writes.

“The crisis again calls for creative reform of the existing international monetary system towards an international reserve currency with a stable value, rule-based issuance and manageable supply, so as to achieve the objective of safeguarding global economic and financial stability,” he says.

What is remarkable about the essay is that Zhou does not mention the dollar by name but it leaves no one in any doubt what he is implying. It may be tempting to see the latest comments as China’s efforts to dilute the US dominance over the global financial system. While that is one of the motivating factors there are many experts in the West who have made a similar argument. When it comes from China, in the immediate aftermath of Wen’s comments in the US’ creditworthiness, it acquires a deeply political dimension.

Read the full essay here.

Questioning America's creditworthiness

Considering that China has built up a reputation of saying things with a great deal of deliberation, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao’s latest comments on America’s creditworthiness should worry anyone paying attention to such matters in Washington.

Wen told his annual news conference, "We have lent a massive amount of capital to the United States, and of course we are concerned about the security of our assets."

In case anyone saw any ambiguity in his first statement Wen added, "To speak truthfully, I do indeed have some worries ... I would like, through you, to once again request America to maintain their creditworthiness, keep their promise and guarantee the safety of Chinese assets."

Within the bounds of diplomatic niceties these comments are quite like a collection agency calling you at dinner time to discuss your outstanding.

China has invested 70% of its $2 trillion foreign exchange reserves in dollar assets and is worried about the meltdown in the US. It is useful to recall here Secretary of State Hilary Clinton’s first visit to China recently during which she urged Beijing to continue to buy US treasury bonds. It is quite possible that the Chinese leadership would have expressed similar concern to Clinton during their official meeting. But to voice them publicly and in such categorical terms is unusual.

At one level Wen’s comments ought to have been genuinely prompted by well-founded worries but at another level they may also be a part of a strategy to dangle the sword over Washington so that issues that China does not want raised are not raised.

All this is perfectly legitimate in the cut-throat world of global diplomacy and machinations. Legitimate does not have to be in good taste.

Being blocked in China

The New York Times has a story that China has blocked its website. That sure makes news. I am reminded of how earlier this year my personal website www.mayankchhaya.com and a news current affairs website www.dailysub.com which I run were blocked by China. I was told that to be a fact by someone in China.

I am a journalist of no consequence at all. My more than a quarter century in the profession has not given me any kind of visibility that should irk my next door neighbor, let alone China.

Yes, there is that little thing about having written an authorized biography of the Dalai Lama which has so far been published in close to 15 languages. Something tells me China may not have liked that very much. 

What a crafty little plug for myself!