The following was published on April 30 in Indica News.
By Mayank Chhaya
The disclosure by The Washington Post of Vikram Yadav as an officer in India’s spy agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) to be allegedly behind the thwarted plot to assassinate the U.S.-based Sikh separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun has come at a particularly inopportune time for the Narendra Modi government.
However, the publication of the investigative story by Greg Miller, Gerry Shih and Ellen Nakashima in the midst of India’s mammoth parliamentary election is unlikely to have any impact on Prime Minister Modi’s electoral fortunes one way or the other.
The more damning details of the alleged plot have already been known since December last year but there are some specific pointers that are potentially troublesome for New Delhi. For instance, this passage: “U.S. spy agencies have more tentatively assessed that Modi’s national security adviser, Ajit Doval, was probably aware of RAW’s plans to kill Sikh activists, but officials emphasized that no smoking gun proof has emerged.”
It is not altogether inconceivable that a plot to assassinate a U.S. citizen, albeit of Indian origin, on U.S. soil, which is unprecedented in its audacity and brazenness, could not have been executed without the highest echelons in India’s intelligence establishment being at least broadly informed of if not involved in.
The passage of four months since the superseding indictment by the Southern District New York (SDNY) identified as CC-1 and Indian government employee “working together with others in India and elsewhere” has not materially affected India-US relations.
That CC-1 has now been revealed to be Yadav is only a matter of detail. The SDNY was careful enough not to mention RAW in the indictment then.
The indictment had focused on Nikhil Gupta, an Indian national charged with plotting to assassinate Pannun. Gupta, who according to the superseding indictment describes himself as someone involved in “international narcotics and weapons trafficking”, may be a relatively minor player by himself but he could possess information that could be damning for higher-ups within the Indian establishment.
It described “CC-1” as formerly affiliated with Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) and later becoming a “Senior Field Officer” with responsibilities in “Security Management” and “Intelligence”. CC-1 is also described as someone who received training in “battle craft” and “weapons.”
At the time of the indictment Indica News had reached out to find out if Gupta was held in custody in New York but was told by an official that he would not comment beyond what the indictment contains. The official also declined to answer if CC-1 had any affiliation with India’s foreign intelligence agency Research and Analysis Wing, better known as RAW on the same grounds.
The fact that CC-1 allegedly authorized a total payment of $100,000 for a hit, according to the indictment, of which $15,000 was paid to a U.S. undercover agent, is both problematic and curious. It is problematic because it underlined a conspiracy. It is curious because it is hard to explain how CC-1 via Gupta knew whom to contact for a contract killing and how Gupta ended up contacting an undercover agent to make the advance payment.
The indictment showed an actual photo of the money being given in a car from one hand to another hand. They look like 100-dollar bills but the one held by the apparent receiving hand looks like a dollar bill.
The essence of the indictment, which goes into great detail to explain the plot, is that CC-1, allegedly Yadav, according to the Post, contracted Gupta to find a hitman in New York and promised him that in return his troubles with the Indian police would be over. “On or about May 12, 2023, CC-1 notified GUPTA that his criminal case “has already been taken care of,” and that “nobody from Guj(a)rat police is calling.” On or about May 23, 2023, CC-1 again assured Gupta that CC-1 had “spoke[n] with the boss about your Gujarat [case],” that it was “all clear,” and “nobody will ever bother you again.” CC-1 further offered to arrange a meeting between GUPTA and a “DCP,” which is an acronym used in India for Deputy Commissioner of Police,” the indictment says.
It is unknown which “boss” CC-1 is talking about in ending Gupta’s case with the Gujarat police. However, the fact that it mentions Gujarat, the home state of both Prime Minister Modi as well as Home Minister Amit Shah would not be lost on New Delhi.
That was a very specific claim and fraught with serious problems for at least Indian officials at relatively senior levels. It also has the potential to be used as leverage by Washington with New Delhi.
As it happens in such plots driven by any intelligence agency or operatives in the world, there ought to be plausible deniability built into to ensure that in case things go wrong, their origin cannot be traced back to the highest levels of the government or intelligence. To that extent, it should not be surprising if CC-1 becomes expendable in terms of his direct links to anyone of great consequence in the Indian government.
The indictment is quite explosive and has significant implications for US-India relations. However, given the US’s murky history in such matters and, more importantly, the fact that Washington needs New Delhi on its side in dealing with much larger and more serious global challenges emanating from China’s undisguised maneuvers as America’s only rival internationally, this case may eventually not amount to much. It may become a sword that Washington would keep hanging in its bilateral relations.
There are many remarkable passages in the indictment but this one is particularly telling. “As they plotted the murder of the Victim, Gupta specifically and repeatedly instructed the CS (confidential source) not to carry out the assassination during anticipated engagements between high level government officials from the United States and India. For example, on or about June 6, 2023, on an audio call, Gupta instructed the CS that “we need to calm down everything (for) 10 days” because of such engagements scheduled to occur over the ensuing weeks. Gupta explained that, given the Victim’s public profile as an activist, there could be protests in the wake of his death, which could lead to “political things,” referring to geopolitical fallout if the Victim were assassinated on U.S. soil during those planned meetings. Gupta added that after the planned engagements, there would be “more jobs, more jobs,” referring to more targeted killings like that of the Victim to be carried out in the future.”
Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson for India’s Ministry of External Affairs, said of the Post story in a formal statement, “The report in question makes unwarranted and unsubstantiated imputations on a serious matter. There is ongoing investigation of the High Level Committee set up by the Government of India to look into the security concerns shared by the US government on networks of organized criminals, terrorists and others. Speculative and irresponsible comments on it are not helpful.”
Given that the Modi government is focused almost entirely on the parliamentary election, there is no prospect of any substantive action in the matter until after the election result is out on June 4 or 5.
New Delhi would not have been surprised by the Post story because as the newspaper pointed out, “White House officials warned the Modi government this month that The Post was close to publishing an investigation that would reveal new details about the case. It did so without notifying The Post.”