On May 6, I wrote about South Asia’s perpetual mutinies, whose central point was about how India sits in the middle of three totally unrelated but equally unsettling conflicts in Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka. Not that there was anything brilliantly original about it but that point had to be highlighted for those who are too close to these conflicts might have missed out on the broader picture.
Tarun Basu, the chief editor of the Indo-Asian News Service, has an excellent story about how India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is deeply worried about the neighborhood being on the boil. “Manmohan Singh is understandably worried that lack of strategic vision in a future government in New Delhi could result in a "strategic encircling" of India with long-term consequences,” Tarun writes as if echoing the growing concern among many discerning Indian experts that China is fishing in troubled waters of South Asia.
Tarun’s story makes a significant point about why it is important for India not to allow neighbors such as China and Pakistan to hijack the agenda there.
“India is worried that if the next government does not address Sri Lanka's economic and strategic concerns in the immediate aftermath of the war, lurking neighbors like China and even Pakistan could "step in to help" to fill a strategic vacuum.
"There is a lot of international interest in the Trincomalee oil farms. If India does not look out, we'll soon have China soon nesting there," a senior official told IANS, speaking on the condition of anonymity.
China has demonstrated growing interest in the South Asian region (it has sought observer status in SAARC), not just in Pakistan, with whom it has close ties, but in Nepal, Sri Lanka and the Maldives as well.”
It is in this context that it is imperative that India has a government that is not just domestically competent but internationally astute as well. There is no other region in the world where geostrategic fault lines crisscross as much as they do in South Asia. While there may be individuals who see the broader picture of the emerging shifts, I am afraid New Delhi still does not seem to show any signs of having factored in this dynamic in its over foreign policy framework. No wonder Manmohan Singh is worried.